Do MOT advisories predict a fail next year?
Vehicles that passed their 2024 MOT with an advisory on their tyres, brakes or suspension failed in that same area at their next MOT more often than similar vehicles with nothing noted there: 1.7 times as often for tyres, 2.0 times for brakes and 1.5 times for suspension.
Similar vehicles are the same model, first-use year and mileage band. This is an association. It doesn't show that the fault behind an advisory caused the later fail, or what a repair would have changed.
The finding, all vehicles
Tyres
313,153 of 3,707,920 vehicles with a tyre advisory failed on tyres at their next MOT (8.4%). Similar vehicles with nothing noted on tyres failed at 4.9%, from 12,886,984 vehicles weighted to the same mix of model, first-use year and mileage. That is 1.71 times as often.
Not tested again 10–14 months later, so not counted: 13.5% of vehicles with a tyre advisory and 12.9% of the others.
Brakes
277,862 of 2,840,033 vehicles with a brake advisory failed on brakes at their next MOT (9.8%). Similar vehicles with nothing noted on brakes failed at 5.0%, from 13,715,024 vehicles weighted to the same mix of model, first-use year and mileage. That is 1.96 times as often.
Not tested again 10–14 months later, so not counted: 15.0% of vehicles with a brake advisory and 12.6% of the others.
Suspension
336,920 of 2,068,841 vehicles with a suspension advisory failed on suspension at their next MOT (16.3%). Similar vehicles with nothing noted on suspension failed at 10.5%, from 14,217,263 vehicles weighted to the same mix of model, first-use year and mileage. That is 1.55 times as often.
Not tested again 10–14 months later, so not counted: 17.2% of vehicles with a suspension advisory and 12.4% of the others.
With millions of vehicles in each group, the 95% margin of error on each advisory figure is ±0.1 points or less, far smaller than the gaps. The limits below matter more.
By model: the 15 most-tested models
Tyres
| Modelvehicles with an advisory | With an advisorynot tested again | Nothing notednot tested again | Times as often |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ford Fiesta169,295 | 9.6%10.9% | 5.7%10.1% | 1.67× |
| Vauxhall Corsa106,232 | 8.2%13.7% | 4.7%12.4% | 1.74× |
| Ford Focus116,384 | 9.9%13.9% | 5.9%12.2% | 1.67× |
| Volkswagen Golf112,851 | 8.5%13.4% | 4.8%12.0% | 1.75× |
| MINI Hatch78,817 | 8.4%13.6% | 4.9%12.6% | 1.70× |
| Volkswagen Polo73,065 | 7.9%11.0% | 4.4%9.8% | 1.79× |
| Nissan Qashqai70,013 | 7.6%10.6% | 4.3%10.0% | 1.74× |
| Vauxhall Astra76,475 | 10.0%16.4% | 6.0%14.3% | 1.68× |
| BMW 3 Series52,926 | 9.4%18.5% | 5.8%16.2% | 1.62× |
| Toyota Yaris57,930 | 6.4%9.1% | 3.6%8.3% | 1.82× |
| Audi A354,809 | 9.5%13.8% | 5.7%12.4% | 1.66× |
| BMW 1 Series47,492 | 9.5%15.7% | 5.8%13.6% | 1.65× |
| Mercedes-Benz A-Class48,270 | 8.8%12.8% | 5.8%12.0% | 1.51× |
| Mercedes-Benz C-Class44,699 | 10.1%15.2% | 6.1%13.6% | 1.66× |
| Honda Jazz43,394 | 6.7%8.1% | 3.3%7.5% | 2.01× |
Brakes
| Modelvehicles with an advisory | With an advisorynot tested again | Nothing notednot tested again | Times as often |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ford Fiesta105,783 | 9.0%13.5% | 4.0%9.7% | 2.26× |
| Vauxhall Corsa63,798 | 9.7%15.5% | 5.0%12.2% | 1.92× |
| Ford Focus71,427 | 8.7%15.4% | 3.8%12.1% | 2.29× |
| Volkswagen Golf81,138 | 8.4%14.7% | 4.2%11.9% | 1.98× |
| MINI Hatch49,308 | 8.9%17.0% | 4.6%12.1% | 1.91× |
| Volkswagen Polo48,926 | 11.1%12.0% | 6.1%9.8% | 1.83× |
| Nissan Qashqai61,136 | 10.6%11.1% | 5.1%9.9% | 2.07× |
| Vauxhall Astra67,068 | 11.5%18.1% | 6.1%13.9% | 1.89× |
| BMW 3 Series42,902 | 9.0%20.4% | 4.8%15.9% | 1.87× |
| Toyota Yaris41,374 | 8.8%10.9% | 4.0%8.0% | 2.20× |
| Audi A338,172 | 7.4%14.8% | 3.7%12.4% | 2.02× |
| BMW 1 Series35,675 | 8.2%17.3% | 4.3%13.4% | 1.91× |
| Mercedes-Benz A-Class31,101 | 7.7%13.6% | 3.7%12.0% | 2.11× |
| Mercedes-Benz C-Class36,215 | 8.8%17.0% | 5.3%13.3% | 1.66× |
| Honda Jazz38,357 | 12.1%10.0% | 7.0%7.1% | 1.72× |
Suspension
| Modelvehicles with an advisory | With an advisorynot tested again | Nothing notednot tested again | Times as often |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ford Fiesta122,126 | 18.1%13.2% | 12.2%9.6% | 1.49× |
| Vauxhall Corsa66,796 | 18.5%17.4% | 13.3%11.7% | 1.39× |
| Ford Focus70,142 | 16.6%18.7% | 11.8%11.4% | 1.41× |
| Volkswagen Golf95,195 | 13.5%15.2% | 9.0%11.6% | 1.50× |
| MINI Hatch28,686 | 11.6%21.1% | 6.7%12.0% | 1.74× |
| Volkswagen Polo43,723 | 18.3%13.6% | 11.5%9.5% | 1.59× |
| Nissan Qashqai38,771 | 21.8%12.6% | 15.1%9.8% | 1.45× |
| Vauxhall Astra39,743 | 18.7%23.1% | 12.8%13.4% | 1.46× |
| BMW 3 Series31,156 | 13.1%23.3% | 7.5%15.6% | 1.75× |
| Toyota Yaris37,760 | 15.7%13.0% | 10.0%7.6% | 1.57× |
| Audi A327,944 | 16.2%18.6% | 10.7%11.8% | 1.51× |
| BMW 1 Series18,213 | 13.6%21.4% | 7.6%13.3% | 1.79× |
| Mercedes-Benz A-Class7,191 | 14.1%17.1% | 8.5%12.0% | 1.65× |
| Mercedes-Benz C-Class22,712 | 17.2%19.9% | 11.6%13.1% | 1.49× |
| Honda Jazz20,157 | 14.9%13.2% | 9.1%7.0% | 1.63× |
With an advisory: the share that failed in that area at the next MOT. Nothing noted: the same for similar vehicles, weighted to the advisory group's mix of first-use year and mileage band. Not tested again: the share with no MOT 10–14 months later, left out of both rates. Comparison group sizes are in the CSV.
Every model and first-use year (CSV, 3,264 rows)How we worked it out
- Data
- The DVSA's anonymised MOT tests and results for 2024 and 2025, both from the same release. We link each vehicle's tests across the two years with the anonymised vehicle ID in the data. No registrations are used or published.
- Vehicles included
- Class 4 vehicles (cars, passenger vehicles with up to 8 seats, goods vehicles up to 3,000 kg) whose first initial MOT of 2024 was a pass with no repairs, on or before 1 November 2024. Each vehicle counts once. Later tests are left out, as their next MOT could fall after the end of 2025.
- Next MOT
- The vehicle's next initial MOT at least 180 days later. It counts only if it was 305 to 425 days (10–14 months) after the first.
- With an advisory
- At least one advisory in the area at the first MOT.
- Nothing noted
- No advisory, minor defect or failure item in the area at the first MOT. Vehicles with only a minor defect there are in neither group.
- Failed in the same area
- At least one failure item in the area at the next MOT, including faults repaired at the test centre within an hour (PRS).
- Similar vehicles
- Same model, first-use year and band of 20,000 miles at the first MOT (140,000 and over is one band, unknown mileage another). Each band's rate for vehicles with nothing noted is weighted by the number of advisory vehicles in it. Bands with fewer than 20 comparison vehicles are left out of both figures.
- Times as often
- The advisory group's rate divided by the weighted rate for similar vehicles.
- Linking check
- 91.3% of vehicles with an initial MOT in 2024 had one in 2025. Between the two, the odometer did not go down for 99.8%, and make and model matched for 100.0%. We don't publish if these fall below 85.0%, 99.0% and 99.9%.
What this doesn't show
- An association, not a causeWe can't see repairs between tests. The figures don't show that the fault behind an advisory led to the later fail, or what fixing it would have changed.
- Vehicles not tested again13.5% to 17.2% of vehicles with an advisory and 12.4% to 12.9% of the others had no MOT 10–14 months later: scrapped, exported, off the road, or tested early or late. They are not counted. If the vehicles that dropped out were in worse condition, the advisory figures are likely to be understated.
- The same area, not the same faultAreas are the DVSA's top-level groups. A brake fail after a brake advisory may be a different brake fault.
- Advisories are up to the testerTesters record advisories at different rates. Region, owner care and how the vehicle is used are not adjusted for.
- Great Britain onlyNorthern Ireland isn't in the DVSA data.
Data, licence and how to cite
- Download
- mot-advisory-next-mot.csv (3,264 rows, 281 KB): the figures on this page, plus every model and first-use year that meets the minimum sample. Columns are explained on MOT data downloads.
- Data years
- First MOT in 2024, next MOT 10–14 months later, in 2024 or 2025. Source: DVSA anonymised MOT tests and results. Last updated 1 Nov 2026.
- Licence
- Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0. If you use these figures, please credit CarHistory.cc and link to this page.
- How to cite
- CarHistory.cc (2026). Do MOT advisories predict a fail next year? 2024–25 DVSA data. https://carhistory.cc/uk/data/mot-advisories-next-mot/. Based on DVSA anonymised MOT data. Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.